Just a quick reminder SMOTE stands for Spread, Moneyline, Over/Under, Trends, and Evaluation. Treat this like gospel, because it is exactly what you are going to be seeing tomorrow.
(All lines are provided by Bovada.lv as of 1/13/17)
Seattle Seahawks at Atlanta Falcons 4:35 pm ET on Fox
SPREAD: Seattle +4.5
Seattle has won six of the last 10 match ups between the two teams with an average margin of victory of about three points, including 2-1 in the last three match ups between the team. Two of those games were decided by two points each (one for the Seattle and one for Atlanta) and the other was a blowout in favor of the Seahawks (Atlanta finished 4-12 in a 2013 season that culminated with the firing of head coach Mike Smith so we can throw that one out). What I am trying to say is that this game is going to be close, probably within a field goal. For that reason I am taking the Seahawks and the points.
The predicted score on OddShark.com is Atlanta 33.7 Seattle 15.1. I don’t know what algorithms they use to come up with this number, but I think this is absolutely bonkers. First of all, Seattle has already beaten Atlanta, and I am aware that was a weird game with some…questionable calls. Still, a win is a win. Second, Seattle was missing a number of important pieces (C-Mike was running the ball, Russel Wilson was still getting over injuries, Cam Chancellor, etc.). I think that Atlanta will win this game, but it will not be a blowout. This will be one of the best two games of the week and probably coming down to the final drive, whoever gets it is going to win.
Over/Under: Over 52
In 4 of the last 6 Seattle has had their games go over. In 5 of the last 5 Atlanta has had their games go over. This game is going over, take it to the bank, put your life savings on it (I’ll be putting all $10.73 of mine on it), and BET THIS OVER. “But the Seattle defense is good. What about the legion of Boom?” Fug’ em. They lost their best player in Earl Thomas and while Snead hasn’t killed them, there are plays to be had. Atlanta’s defense…train wreck, and with this new found rushing attack from Seattle, something that I think will continue against that Atlanta D, Seattle should be able to keep up the scoring.
Atlanta is 4-2 ATS and 5-1 SU in their last 6 games. That being said they are a putrid 4-10 ATS in their last 14 games at home, 4-10!!! To add on to this awful trend Atlanta is 1-4 in their last 5 home games against Seattle regardless of who wins or loses this game I think that it is clear that Atlanta, the Georgia Dome, and Vegas have a strenuous relationship.
Seattle has also been poor in their last 5 on the road ATS at 1-4. Also as a reminder, this is that same Seattle team that everyone was freaking out about when they lost to Arizona and had a far to competitive win against a hapless San Francisco team.
Seattle has been as inconsistent as possible this 2016-17 season. Every time that you think they are about to turn a corner and be that powerhouse of the last 5 years they throw up a stinker to a bad team. Last week’s win could easily be the latest example of that if they finish off the season with a loss to Atlanta. The Falcons have been the Houston Rockets, but the NFL edition of course. What I mean by that is that they are all offense and little to no defense. Vic Beasley has been good this year, but he is really the only bright spot of a defense that has allowed an average of 25.4 points per game, good for 27th in the league.
Houston Texans at New England Patriots 8:15 pm ET on CBS
Spread: Patriots -16
Ho boy, those poor, poor Texans. They are going to get smacked, that’s it. They are beyond lucky that they play in the AFC South and faced a Raiders team that had lost their engine (Derek Carr).
*Quick aside: F**K the Carr brother’s parents for naming them each with names that start with D. I can never get that one right*
The Texans do not belong here, they have the worst QB remaining in the playoffs, a running game that is meh at best, and a good not great defense. The Patriots spanked them back with Jacoby Brissett was starting and with Tom Brady back in the mix I don’t think that changes.
The Vegas moneyline on this is something like -2000 on the Patriots, meaning that you have to bet $2,000 to win $100. Don’t be cute with this one, Houston has no chance. This is an angry Tom Brady who after serving his undeserved suspension is on a comeback tour that will be a failure with anything short of a Super Bowl.
Over/Under: Over 44.5
I’m a little more worried about this one. While I easily could see New England scoring well into the 30s, I have trouble seeing Houston score more than 7, 10 at the most. Since the over has won in six of these teams last eight games I am going to say the over here. More in trends as to why this may be foolish on my part.
The under has hit in five of Houston’s last seven, and in five of New England’s last seven.This, combined with the fact that I think New England will be out “for blood,” makes my over pick look shaky. What does look good for me is the fact that New England is 5-0 in ATS and SU in their last 5. New England is also 7-1 all time against Houston with the over hitting in six of those games. Houston is 2-6 in their last eight ATS as well.
If you bet anything against the Patriots you are an idiot. Sure, 16 is a lot of points, but even if Houston manages to cover you can’t feel good heading into that game, especially considering what these two teams looked like against each other with New England sporting a 3rd string rookie quarterback. If you are worried about New England covering 16 put this game in a teaser with Kansas City and/or another game. Don’t bet anything on Houston.
SEA @ ATL: Seattle +4.5, Atlanta to win, Over 52,
HOU @ NE: New England -16, New England to win, Over 44.5
GB @ DAL: Green Bay +4, Green Bay to win, Over 52.5
PIT @ KC: Kansas City -1, Kansas City to win, Under 45
Check out my Sunday picks here: https://mcsnetwerk.wordpress.com/2017/01/14/2017-divisional-round-smote-