Just a quick reminder SMOTE stands for Spread, Moneyline, Over/Under, Trends, and Evaluation. Treat this like gospel, because it is exactly what you are going to be seeing on Sunday.
(All lines are provided by Bovada.lv as of 1/21/17)
Green Bay Packers @ Atlanta Falcons 3:05pm ET on FOX
Spread: Green Bay +4
Just like last week Green Bay is on the road as four point dogs, and just like last week I am taking them and the points. The singular reason why is Aaron Rodgers. He is the best. I am a Chicago Bears fan. I am picking Green Bay because of my fear in Aaron Rodgers. I don’t care that nearly across the board in both talent and depth. Starting with the game against Philadelphia Aaron Rodgers has lead (dragged) Green Bay to a 8-0 record. In that period he has 21 TD, 2,384 yards, and one phrase “I feel like we can run the table.”
Atlanta is a still a great team. Their defense has showed notable improvement after looking like a limp piece of bacon in the half of the regular season (28.8 per game). That being said, they have played more than a few sub-par offenses in the second half such as the Rams and the 49ers. In fact, half of the opponents they faced ranked in the bottom half of the league in scoring offenses, highlighted by the LA Rams at 32nd.
Moneyline: Green Bay
I picked them to win on the spread, but I don’t need no stinking points! Green Bay is going to win this game outright. Need I point you to the video above?
Over/Under: Over 62
As the kids said in 2011: YOLO. As I heard on Pardon My Take this week, betting the under in this game is pretty much rooting against fun. The fun of this game will be seeing how many points the elite Atlanta offense and Aaron Rodgers can put up (let’s be real there is no one else on Green Bay doing any of the actual work). Is it evidence that you want that this game is going over? Well then how about this: in these teams last 10 match-ups against one another the over has hit 6 times, Green Bay has hit the over in five of their last five, and Atlanta in…five of five at home. This game is going over, just sit back, have fun, and forget about punts.
Like I said before, both teams have hit the over in each of their last five games (well Atlanta when they are home, but they are home). Also previously stated is the trend that Aaron Rodgers has been unstoppable for half a season. Atlanta is a putrid 5-10 ATS in their last 15 in the Georgia Dome, but 5-1 SU (me thinks Vegas knows these guys). Green Bay on the other hand is 7-1 ATS in their last 8 (8-0 SU) and the total has been OVER in six of the last seven road games they have played. Many teams score better at home, including Atlanta who had more touchdowns rushing and passing at home than away during the regular season. The Packers did have more passing touchdowns while at home, but on the road they had more rushing touchdowns.
I said it to start the piece and I’ll say it to end it. FEAR AARON RODGERS. He has no family, no friends, no life, other than football and Olivia Munn. His singular life focus right now is to put up points, wait until he defense fails to stop Atlanta, then go back out and put up more points. That is what he is going to do, that is what will happen, so sit back and enjoy.
GB @ ATL: Green Bay +4, Green Bay to Win, Over 62